Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Identifying the trend



Sometimes the trend is not so easily spotted. Whipsaw action and fakeouts are the name of the game. You can counter those by either going for a walk or if you choose to trade by paying careful attention to the technical indicators.
This large green candle on the QQQQ looks strange coming right after a longish low volume red candle. I view obvious fakeouts like this as an ideal place to do the opposite---go short. I only use the QQQQ as a guide for the market strength and don't trade it.


A little while later you can see the QQQQ is down to lows again. Here it pops up on no volume and just hangs there. I watched for many seconds and no trades went by. HHmmm smells like manipulation to me.

3rd chart shows a little more later it has returned to lows with gusto. A trend made up of quick down candles followed by no volume pops or counter uptrends tells me the general trend is more down than up. Now find a stock that is trending like BIDU shown below and trade it.

Playing the trend



When markets are jumpy and with little follow through I prefer to find a stock that is trending and then keep on trading the trend. BIDU popped up on the making new lows ticker, that means it's in play.
Short BIDU





Cover BIDU






Could have played the bounce but didn't want to go against the trend which was down today
Waited for weakness to show itself again. Waited for it to come to me again. Short BIDU.








Cover BIDU

Momentum in action



Go with it, don't fight it.The 1:00 wave is the best.

Thinking vs. feeling

The road of discovery to becoming a successful trader is a long one fraught with many wrong turns and trials.
There is much to learn about technical indicators and trading systems. Obtaining and retaining strategies that work for your situation and your personality is a daunting process.
I would also venture to say that the new trader probably doesn't give much thought to turning inward to themselves and examine in-depth their thought processes and belief systems. After you learn to read charts and have amassed a data bank of practical knowledge about how the markets work and react, the most important step is to apply that knowledge successfully in an ongoing manner. You can have the best system in the world but if you continually sabotage yourself by letting your faulty programming ruin the show you will not be successful.
The solution is to recognize what is holding you back and change these areas. That sounds like common sense doesn't it. But if you keep doing the same things that get you in trouble you will continue to replay the painful past.
Keep a journal and immediately write down your thoughts, your actions and zero in on problem areas as they happen. Be true with yourself. Then trust yourself. Work through each area. Stop the bad habits. Change them into good habits.
The most frequent question is "How long will this transformation from amateur to consistent pro take"? There is no definite answer. It will take as long as it does and your timetable means nothing to natures timetable. I know that the less you fight the system and the more you go with the flow, the easier and faster it comes to you. Fighting the system means being rigid in your expectations and flexible in the execution of your edge. Reverse that. Your transformation is not a race. It is a plodding absorption of knowledge that you eventually can use to your benefit.
After you gain this knowledge of the markets and yourself, a change occurs that moves you from thinking about what the markets are doing and moves into a more instinctive feeling about what is happening. Throughout this blog I've said many times that I feel what the markets will do. I certainly have conviction and act on those feelings. I trust myself. Call it being in the flow or zone or whatever you want but whatever it is I just let the markets show me what to do. I heed the advice and play the probabilities not expectations. The markets are an ocean of opportunities. You can cast your net into them and haul in your catch when you are in the right place at the right time.
Anything can happen and once you prepare yourself to trade from that perspective things will suddenly become easier. You and only you are responsible for adjusting your outlook on where the future direction may be. Unlearn bad habits or entrenched personality traits. Overcome stumbling blocks. Go around walls if you cannot go over them. Never give up.