Friday, June 11, 2010





couple of oil shorts this morning


BP














BP cover














APC


















APC cover

6 comments:

Bob said...

Scott: Just wondering - I am having one of those days again this morning. Several positions had +30 ticks in direction, and then turn around and get stopped.

Do you have a general rule that you go by for helping you to realize/distinguish this type of market?

Hindsight says take the 30 ticks. hard for me to know when to let it run, and when to take what I can get. I want to avoid the 'take what I can get' habit - but today it would have served me very well.

Scott said...

DTF- momo scalp mode should just be one of your strategies along side of momo agressive and momo trend mode. if you are seeing choppy markets it is up to you to react either by adjusting your style or stepping away until conditions are more favourable.

CN said...

DTF, I read your blog now and again, and I notice that being up then down seems to happen to you a bit. If you haven't been able to distinguish when a trade's momo will continue with consistency, why not make a point to always take a profit when you see it?

I'm not trying to criticize, just trying to help you build your confidence (and capital).

If you take a profit and the stock keeps moving, is that worse than having a profit then losing it? That's a personal question for you. You seem to have a knack for getting into stocks that move in the right direction. If you haven't figured out the best times to exit on momentum, at least take the profit you see.

Bob said...

Thanks for the input CN.

At this point in my trading education, those up and down plays become a battle: trying to convince myself to have patience and to wait it out. In the process of doing so, I think I become blind to what is going on with the stock, focusing on 'be patient', rather than the momo, and talking myself into letting it come all the way back for the stop. I am going to try and stay away from talking myself into anything and see how it goes with trusting my reaction.

Scott: practically speaking, what do you find yourself doing while managing trades? E.g., after entry, are you focused on the market? Flipping between your charted positions? Do you focus on intra-candle movement? I remember reading somewhere that you tend not to look at the price until you are ready to exit. On a nervous day (i.e. Friday), I find myself obsessing over every little move, which doesn't tend to help much. Wondering how you handle it.

Scott said...

dtf- well i think and do all those things. i constantly scroll between stocks i am in managing the trade i.e. looking for an exit , a place to add size, gauging candle movement for a clue to the future. i have only 1 stock displayed at a time as compared to some traders who display several different charts at once. as i scroll through it is ez to see changes.
price is irrelevant to your position. rather it is the momentum that should tell you what to do- get in or get out. if you are waiting for it to reach some price you have expectations and the market does't pay attention to what you want. but since every rule is made to be broken so I will many times exit close to an even dollar amount if a candle quickly moves there. that is more just taking advantage of the situation though.
I have actually tried (unsuccessfully) to get rid of the price column on my charts because it is really useless information apart from telling me the daily trading range. price has no bearing on my trading. i would call "price action" simply momentum if the numbers were not visible. I usually trade .01 spread stocks so price in regards to getting filled doesn't matter at all. thinking about value doesn't enter into my head. cheap or expensive is a matter for academics to debate. it is meaningless to a momo trader.
think opportunity and momentum instead.
if you are stressing out over every little move ( i hope you aren't using 1 minute candles) then just place the trade and set your stop. it will either work or not. if you truly accept the risk that you can lose on every trade but know your edge will make you a winner over a period of time, then trust in probabilities and yourself to carry out your plan.

Bob said...

Thanks Scott - I think that is helpful.

No - I got over the 1 minute candle bit, but I tend to hyper-analyze the 5 minute candle: staring at the candle and reading too much into what just happened - my version of gauging the movement. And practically speaking, when I am obsessing, I think I defeat the entire purpose of the 5 minute time-frame. Trying to somehow avoid that trap. I will try to keep 'momo and opportunity' in mind. Thanks man.