Tuesday, August 24, 2010

The fake out.


A reoccurring theme here is to buy green candles and short red candles especially when they are making new highs or lows. But after a while you get be pretty good at spotting the false moves. This chart presents the case.
At the time (and I had been watching and waiting) the candles happened I thought it smacked of desperation. A move that had all the hallways of a genuine move with a big candle and lots of volume. The thing was, it was in the wrong direction to the general sentiment of the markets which is down. This is the thing to key in on. And although I can't tell you why because I don't know myself, it just screamed "short opportunity" to me. It just seemed obvious.
Chart is PCLN swing short entry. PCLN quickly moved lower and stop was never threatened.Its $12+ lower today. PCLN is an internet travel company with a $300 stock. The words irrational exuberance come to mind. Anything can happen but I am betting it goes lower. If I get stopped out I would be looking for another good entry point to short it as I think discretionary travel #s will drop.
I remember a few years ago when CROX shares were not far off twice as expensive as GE. Yeah, plastic shoes, thats it. The future economic engine. I'll trade the hype with the best of them but eventually reality set in and I want to short it.

Musings

If BHP really want POT why don't they take control of the two railroads CP, CNI up here that move the product? When your production location is in the middle of nowhere, the transportation options are limited.
Just a thought.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Swing Trading


First off let me say that I am not an expert in swing trading so take whats contained in this post from that point of view.
Exactly opposite from day trading where there is no expectations of where it's going to go, I have to have some conviction when it comes to swing trading.
Basically I think the markets are going to get pummeled in the worst(best) way and we'll be back to fall '08 style declines. Well, I can hope can't I. That was such a glorious time to trade.
With that in mind, I placed some bets earlier this month in SRS, SKF , TZA the inverse ETFs. All have tremendous upside potential in times of crisis(or reality).
They are all showing me a profit and that my thesis is correct, at least for now. Anything can happen and the Fed has all sorts of trickery to keep the market up but I believe market downward pressure will not be stopped until a true bottom is reached. Way down there. I have no time frame for that or price targets.
Chart shows SRS swing long entry August 2.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Not dead yet


Guys, Thanks for the flowers but I'm not dead yet, just slowing down on posting the mundane. When I have something worthwhile I'll post it.
I think I've about run out of things to say and posting the same TNA trades over and over is boring.
I started this blog for me and if it has turned into something else that benefited you then I'm happy to have helped you, but I don't care if people visit this site or not. I've never had links to bring in traffic or allowed myself to be prostituted by advertisements. If you find this approach refreshing, then follow my lead and start something similar.
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I'm still not interested in being involved in your hedge fund. You are sort of the enemy.
However I will be interested in watching your movie about the daytrader who becomes a bankrobber to feed his losing habit.
** Had to change the blog template as there was too many glitches with the old one 8/21/10

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

15 minute signals


Using the 15 minute chart pays significant benefits.
Here we have TZA TNA and NFLX.
I use the 15s as a form of confirmation, another clue to use to make a compelling case for a trade or to add size.
Notice how TZA and TNA both made doji or doji like candles before this and then ran, down and up.
Using these signals I bot TZA and sold and shorted TNA and NFLX.
Into the close we see what happened...





I had the option of taking a quick profit on the initial jump or wait and see if this was an actual trend change. I choose to wait.
Although they did make a reaction back towards the original entry, it never really threatened to turn into a losing trade by taking out the original stops. Another trade would have been to take the 1st profits then wait for them to exhaust themselves and trend again.
Many ways to skin a cat depending on your trading style. These signals are available to anyone and are easy to see if you pay attention.

another NFLX short

















cover NFLX

POT short


















pot cover

NFLX short


nice short on NFLX


entry















cover NFLX

Saturday, August 14, 2010

A winners mindset

Positive mental attitude. Pre-performance visualizations. Unrelenting application of my system.
These are some of the areas that I constantly practice. These are what make me what I am.
Not trying to be an egotist but I believe that in my realm of momentum trading, nobody in the world is better than I am. I believe in me. It puts me to bed at night, it wakes me up in the morning. This positive thinking prepares me and gives me confidence. Everyday is a new day. Every trade is a new trade and I am only as good as my last one. Forget about it, be it good or bad. I don't project forward fears or joys from the past, I'm not anxious about the future. The now moment is where I do my work. Here and now is the only thing that matters. I never give up. I adapt to changing conditions quickly. I've seen most everything but still have a burning desire to learn more.
During my visualizations, I see what the markets will do today although I don't know exactly when those moves will come. I practice in my minds eye exactly what my responses to those moves will be. Move, counter-move, check , check mate. I am prepared for what comes my way and have a clearly thought out plan ready to implement. I am not surprised at anything the market does because anything is possible. I don't limit myself.
I know my myself, system, edge and platform inside out. Long, short, pullbacks, pops, I know what to do. I am ceaseless in the application of my system. I know this is where success comes from. I have done the same things over and over again 1000's of times.
Human nature predicts probability. I study it. I apply it myself through my system.
I monitor myself and make adjustments in the areas of concentration and alertness. I admit when I need to take a step back and fall back to "the zone". I can put "the zone" on like an overcoat. Nothing but driven focused results follow.

All this I can do and you know what? Anybody who is reading this can do the same. There is nothing different about me physically than you. I choose to be this way and you can too. Hard work, realizations and application can bring you to your top level performance.
First you have to want to do this. With a burning desire you have to what to be the best. You have to want it more than anything you've ever wanted before.
Second you must be willing to pay the price to achieve it. Long hours, hard mental work. Learning about yourself and admitting it may be a real eye opener for some of you. The price you pay for anything great is high. When you don't think like most others you will have to enjoy that feeling that makes you different. Revel in it. Seek it out. You're an individual not a clone.
But also you have to remain humble and grounded. Your real goal here is freedom. Freedom to do what you want, when you want to do it, on your terms. Chew on that for a while. Dream about it. Think about what it would be like to be the successful you in the future. Place yourself there, now. What's stopping you? What obstacles need to be overcome? Develop a plan to put you on that track. Practice with unwavering commitment to move forward everyday. Grow with your little successes. Feed on them. All suffering is caused by desire or attachments. Pare these down and simplify everything in your life. Everything.
Be thankful for what you have and who you are. You can do this. There is not a single reason why you can't if you believe in yourself and choose commitment over slacking off . Erase the words,"I can't" from your vocabulary. Don't say it, don't think it. Replace them with I can, I will.
You have freewill. It's up to you to decide. What's it going to be? Leave me a comment about it...